What does the quantum computing risk mean for encryption in a German business?
In short
What does the quantum computing risk mean for encryption in a German business? The BSI, Germany's federal IT security agency, considers it realistic that methods such as RSA will be broken in the 2030s. Data intercepted today could then be read. Sensitive applications should be switched by the end of 2030. There is no insurance just for this risk; cyber insurance starts at about 400 euros a year.
There is no product just for the quantum risk; the matching cover is cyber insurance. Guide figures from published premium examples in Germany.
Example
Typical range
Trade or hospitality business, up to 500,000 euros turnover
from about 400 euros a year
Association, 150,000 to 250,000 euros turnover, 250,000 euros cover
from about 534 euros a year
Software development, up to 1 million euros turnover, 250,000 euros cover
from about 646 euros a year
Software development, up to 1 million euros turnover, 1 million euros cover
from about 1,061 euros a year
Rule of thumb by turnover
about 0.1 to 0.5 percent of annual turnover
Guide figures, October 2026, from published premium examples.
Your premium depends on sector, turnover, cover and IT security.
The figures in the worked example are guide values from our quoting practice.
Norman Nammert acts as an insurance broker; the insurer pays the commission.
Worked example
Tax advisory firm with long lived client data
A firm in Frankfurt with 800,000 euros turnover exchanges client data in encrypted form with clients and authorities. The data must stay confidential for more than ten years.
Protection period of the data
beyond 2035, so affected
Cyber insurance, rule of thumb 0.1 to 0.5 percent
about 800 to 4,000 euros a year
Inventory of encryption
VPN, email encryption, portals, archive
Question for software providers
timeline for hybrid or quantum safe methods
The firm should plan the switch now, because its data must stay protected longer than today's methods are considered safe. Cyber insurance covers the consequences of a data leak but does not replace the switch.
Why quantum computers threaten today's encryption
Many connections in a business, from online banking to VPN and email, rely on public key methods such as RSA and ECC. The BSI and partners from 17 other EU states consider it realistic that quantum computers could break these methods in the 2030s.
The risk starts today: attackers can store encrypted data now and decrypt it later. Experts call this "store now, decrypt later". Data that must stay confidential for a long time is most exposed, such as health data, design plans or contracts.
Which deadlines apply
The EU roadmap of June 2025 says all member states should start moving to quantum safe methods by the end of 2026. High risk use cases should be switched as soon as possible and by the end of 2030 at the latest.
In February 2026 the BSI recommended that classical asymmetric encryption should no longer be used on its own after the end of 2031, and after the end of 2030 for highly sensitive applications. It should then be combined with post quantum methods. On 12 October 2026 the BSI published national guidance on the EU roadmap that is also aimed at companies.
Date
What should apply
Source
End of 2026
transition starts in all EU states
EU roadmap
End of 2030
high risk use cases switched
EU roadmap, BSI
End of 2031
classical asymmetric encryption no longer used alone
BSI recommendation
2035
transition largely complete
BSI guidance
What a business can do now
The BSI advises building the quantum risk into risk management, assigning responsibility and deadlines, and involving suppliers early. The key idea is crypto agility: systems designed so that algorithms and key lengths can be swapped without a major rebuild.
In practice, a small business that relies on encryption should ask its providers of firewall, VPN, cloud and sector software when they will offer quantum safe or hybrid methods, and put this into new contracts.
What cyber insurance expects
There is no insurance just against the quantum computing risk. If data is stolen or decrypted, that is a matter for cyber insurance, provided its terms cover the case.
Cyber policies assume good IT security. The German insurers' association model terms (GDV AVB Cyber, February 2024) require in clause A1-16 among other things patch management with timely security updates, and rule out systems with known gaps unless extra safeguards are in place. Leaving supplier updates to quantum safe methods uninstalled can lead to disputes.
A special case is data intercepted today and decrypted years later. Whether the loss then falls under the current policy depends on how the terms define the insured event. Ask about this before you sign.
When you do not need to act straight away
The BSI looks at two points: how sensitive the data is and how long it must stay protected. A business whose encrypted data is worthless after a few years does not need to buy anything special because of the quantum risk. Installing supplier updates and asking about post quantum methods for new systems is enough.
Step by step
List where your business uses encryption: VPN, email, cloud, archives, portals.
Record for each type of data how long it must stay confidential.
Ask suppliers for their roadmap to post quantum methods.
Install security updates promptly, as cyber policies require.
Check with your cyber insurer when a leak decrypted years later counts as an insured event.
Checklist
List of all encrypted connections and archives
Protection period known for each type of data
Person responsible for the transition named
New supplier contracts require crypto agility
Cyber policy with security duties you can actually meet
Common mistakes
Postponing the topic to 2035 although data can be intercepted today
Assuming cyber insurance replaces the transition
Leaving security updates uninstalled and breaching policy duties
Forgetting long lived archives and thinking only of live connections
Questions and answers
Frequently asked
When could quantum computers break RSA?
The BSI considers it realistic that RSA and ECC could be broken in the 2030s.
Because attackers can store data today, the risk already matters now.
Does a small business need to switch now?
It depends on how sensitive your data is and how long it must stay protected.
With short lived data, installing supplier updates is usually enough.
Will cyber insurance pay if data is decrypted later by a quantum computer?
That depends on the terms, especially how the insured event is defined and whether the policy is
still running.
Clarify this before you buy.
What is hybrid encryption?
A classical and a quantum safe method are combined,
so the connection stays protected as long as one of them holds.
The BSI recommends this combination.
Is the quantum risk regulated by law?
There are deadlines in the EU roadmap and recommendations from the BSI.
These documents do not set a general legal duty with a fixed date for every business.
