Fiji forecasts an above average South Pacific cyclone season
The Fiji Meteorological Service forecasts 11 to 15 tropical cyclones in the South Pacific in the 2026/27 season, against a long term average of about seven. A strong El Niño is the main driver.
Technology NAMMERT Assekuradeur GmbH
The Fiji Meteorological Service runs RSMC Nadi, the regional tropical cyclone centre for the South Pacific, and issues the official seasonal outlook for its area of responsibility. For November 2026 to April 2027 it expects 11 to 15 tropical cyclones, where the long term average is about seven. Six to eight of them could reach Category 3 or above, against an average of about three. noonsite, the cruising sailors' information site, covered the outlook on 18 October 2026 and gives 1 November as the official start of the season.
The outlook also says where the risk sits. East of the Dateline the service expects 8 to 10 cyclones, 4 to 5 of them severe, which is above average. West of the Dateline it expects 5 to 6, with 2 to 3 severe, close to normal. Two to three systems are likely to pass through Fiji's waters, one or two of them severe. The agency points to a strong El Niño that is expected to grow stronger and last into early 2027, and lists 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 as comparable seasons.
Activity usually peaks in January and February, and from January to March for Fiji. The service stresses that cyclones outside the season cannot be ruled out; they have formed in October and May before. Crews wintering in the islands or planning the passage to New Zealand should follow the official warnings from now on rather than count on a quiet run until November.
What this means for owners
For anyone keeping a yacht in the South Pacific this season, the practical questions come before the first warning: is the boat inside the cruising area named in the policy, and does the insurer know where it is lying? Storm preparation that can be shown later counts too, such as doubled mooring lines, chafe protection, sails taken off or lashed, and a note in the logbook. This concerns mainly sailing yachts and catamarans on long passages lying in Polynesia, Tonga or Fiji or heading for New Zealand. A fair question for your insurer is which storm precautions and position reports they expect while the boat is in the cyclone belt.
Our view as NAMMERT, not part of the news. Your own policy wording decides.
Where this comes from
- Source: Fiji Meteorological Service, RSMC Nadi, Tropical Cyclone Outlook 2026-27
- Source: noonsite, 18.10.2026
The text is our own; the sources supplied the facts and figures, not the wording.
